Week 11 Exness economic calendar report
By Paul Reid
This week’s economic releases could be a turning point for markets, with key inflation reports, central bank decisions, and employment data shaping sentiment. The headlines will tell one story, but if you look deeper, you might see something else entirely.
Monday, March 9
China CPI (01:30 GMT)
Beijing’s official inflation data always comes with a question mark. If CPI is lower than expected, China might use it as justification for further stimulus, pushing Asian equities higher and weakening the yuan. If inflation spikes, it could indicate deepening supply chain issues or even strategic price adjustments by the government to curb excessive speculation in metals like copper (XCUUSD) and zinc (XZNUSD). Either way, the market response could be a smokescreen for deeper economic struggles—China has been quietly accumulating gold reserves, potentially preparing for a future financial reset.
Tuesday, March 10
Germany Industrial Output (07:00 GMT)
Europe’s largest economy has been teetering on recession. A weak number could reinforce expectations of ECB rate cuts, potentially sending EURUSD lower. However, if output surprises to the upside, it could be fueled by government spending rather than real industrial growth. Behind closed doors, Germany’s energy crisis remains unresolved—high production costs may still lead to economic contraction in Q2.
US JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 & 15:00 GMT)
The labor market is the Fed’s last line of defense before rate cuts. A sharp drop in job openings could send gold (XAUUSD) higher as rate cut bets surge. But here’s the twist: job numbers are often revised later—and rarely in a way that benefits traders who react too quickly. Watch for a potential market fake-out before positioning.
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (16:00 GMT)
With OPEC+ warning about future production cuts, this report might set the stage for an oil price surge. If demand forecasts remain strong while supply remains constrained, WTI crude (USOIL) could break out. Meanwhile, the US SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) levels remain alarmingly low—is Washington preparing for an energy crisis?
Wednesday, March 11
US CPI (12:30 GMT)
Inflation is the week’s main event, but what’s really happening beneath the surface? A high CPI print could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, sending USD higher and stocks lower. But if inflation cools, it could be due to short-term price suppression rather than real economic stability. A softer number could also be used to justify another round of stimulus or covert liquidity injections into the market. If CPI surprises lower, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) could surge, anticipating looser monetary conditions.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision (13:45 GMT)
Canada’s central bank is walking a tightrope. A hawkish surprise could strengthen CAD, but if they hold rates steady, it may be a sign that central banks are coordinating their policies behind closed doors—watch for synchronized moves from the Fed and ECB in the coming weeks.
EIA Crude Oil Stocks (14:30 GMT)
If inventories come in lower than expected, it could fuel an oil rally that has been long overdue. Rumors of Russian supply disruptions and Middle Eastern tensions could be quietly influencing energy markets—this might be the trigger.
Thursday, March 12
Eurozone Industrial Production (10:00 GMT)
Europe is desperate for growth, but at what cost? If industrial output rises, it might be fueled by unsustainable debt spending rather than real demand. If the numbers disappoint, expect calls for Eurozone stimulus, which could weaken EURUSD in the short term.
US PPI (12:30 GMT)
Wholesale inflation will hint at where CPI is heading next. If producers face rising costs, expect another inflation wave soon. However, if PPI declines, the Fed may feel justified in quietly ramping up money supply again. Either way, gold traders should be paying attention—this data could confirm or derail the next leg of the rally.
Friday, March 13
UK GDP Estimate (07:00 GMT)
The UK economy remains in a fragile state, and the government is quietly preparing stealth stimulus measures. If GDP surprises to the downside, expect GBPUSD weakness and a potential dip in the FTSE 100. If it’s stronger than expected, ask yourself: is this real growth, or just another statistical mirage?
Germany CPI Final (07:00 GMT)
Germany has been accused of underreporting inflation, and revisions can be revealing. If inflation is revised higher, the ECB may be forced to delay rate cuts, supporting EURUSD. But if the number is conveniently revised lower, it might be an attempt to calm markets ahead of more financial turbulence.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (14:00 GMT)
Consumer sentiment often reflects political and economic manipulation. A high number could be a sign of manufactured optimism before key elections, while a drop might indicate growing public distrust in the economy. Either way, this release could trigger market moves in S&P 500, Nasdaq, and gold.
Market manipulation or opportunity? How traders should respond
Forex – USD will be on a knife’s edge this week, reacting to CPI and labor data. Expect volatility in EURUSD, GBPUSD, and USDJPY.
Commodities – Gold (XAUUSD) will move sharply around inflation data, while oil (USOIL) may see a supply-driven spike following the EIA report.
Indices – If inflation remains sticky, equities could face a pullback, while rate-cut bets could drive tech stocks higher.
Crypto – If CPI cools, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) could rally as traders bet on lower interest rates and increased liquidity.
Expect sharp market swings this week, and don’t take every data point at face value. The markets move not just on numbers, but on the narratives that are being pushed—or concealed. Stay ahead, think critically, and position yourself accordingly.
Keeping the global economy in mind
The United States has adopted aggressive trade policies under President Donald Trump, implementing substantial tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and potentially the European Union. These measures have disrupted global trade systems, leading to economic instability. The European Union is reassessing its fiscal strategies, with Germany considering increased borrowing to bolster defense capabilities in response to US isolationist policies.
China faces deflationary pressures, with consumer prices experiencing significant declines and persistent producer price deflation. In response, Beijing has announced stimulus measures to counteract these trends. The property sector's challenges, mounting debt, and evolving trade relations with the US have prompted China to focus on innovation and market diversification to sustain growth.
Global financial markets have exhibited heightened volatility due to these developments. Wall Street experienced notable declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dropping amid concerns over US trade policies and China's economic slowdown. Asian markets mirrored this trend, while European markets showed cautious optimism, anticipating Germany's potential fiscal expansion. Safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc have strengthened, reflecting risk-averse investor behavior.
Economists are revising 2025 forecasts in light of these rapid changes. The US faces increased recession risks due to trade policies, while Germany's departure from fiscal conservatism could reshape the eurozone's economic landscape. China's shift toward consumer-driven growth aims to mitigate deflationary risks. These factors contribute to a dynamic and uncertain global economic environment.
Conclusion
In summary, the global economy in March 2025 is characterized by enduring post-pandemic challenges, intensified trade disputes, strategic policy shifts, and significant market fluctuations, necessitating vigilant monitoring and adaptive strategies from policymakers and investors alike.
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This is not investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Your capital is at risk, please trade responsibly.
Author:
Paul Reid
Paul Reid is a financial journalist dedicated to uncovering hidden fundamental connections that can give traders an advantage. Focusing primarily on the stock market, Paul's instincts for identifying major company shifts is well established from following the financial markets for over a decade.